Drona Bandyopadhyay
Bangladesh is gearing herself up for the next general election in the end of 2023 and start of 2024. As political tradition shows the elections in Bangladesh are always enervatingly marred by conflicts and controversies.
The main contenders in the power politics of Bangladesh are Awami League (AL) and BNP. But BNP has clearly stated that it will not take part in the next general election if it is held under the present dispensation of Awami League govt. under the premiership of Sheikh Hasina. BNP demands resignation of Sheikh Hasina and inclusion of the provision of non-party caretaker govt. in the constitution to arrange and organize a free and fair election.Already BNP and her allies including 20 party alliance and newly formed Ganatantra Mancha has taken a hardline position regarding their demands.
Awami League has also taken a hardline stance to counter the demands and ongoing demonstrations of BNP. PM Sheikh Hasina has given a stern warning to BNP to not to cross a redline in the name of political movement to dislodge the government from power which is in power since 2009, an unprecedented event in the political history of Bangladesh.
Due to rising power, foreign exchange reserve and inflation crises the govt is facing real threat from the economy. The corruption, money laundering, extra-judicial killings, imposition of U.S. sanctions on RAB and 6 high ranking officials have posed a grave challenge to the popularity of Awami League.
But AL has a large countrywide organization, dedicated frontal organisations and huge money, muscle and media power. Moreover it has a large beneficiary segment in every strata of the society due its longest stint in power.
Al has done a remarkable job in economic upliftment and infrastructural development. Padma Bridge bears the testimony to it. It is the edifice of Sheikh Hasina’s legacy.
History is also on the side of AL. AL has no record of being ousted from power through popular revolt. On the contrary AL ousted many unpolular governments in 1954, 1969, 1990, 1996 and 2006-2007.
The violent extra-constitutional intervention can remove AL from power. 1975 tragedy proves it.But there is a catch here.Since 2014 AL is no more dependent on electoral competition and performance. Both 2014 and 2018 elections were objectionable.
The common people want a change. They are tired of sermons on MUJIB, 1975 TRAGEDY, LIBERATION WAR VALUES, etc. The economy is in doldrums. People are reeling under dire financial constraints.The high-handedness of police and other state agencies are an important issue in the public domain.
The minorities are still insecure in public life. They are harassed across the country.Tribals of CHT have not seen the complete implementation of peace treaty and resolution of land issues in their habitat zone.
VP Nur, Reza Kibria, Zafrullah Chowdhury, Kamal Hossain, Badiul Alam Majumdar, are important civil society power players backed by several foreign embassies. They want a non-party administration in Bangladesh. Mohammad Yunus is their clan leader.
Hefazat I Islam will be a divided force in case of any political upheaval between AL and BNP. Some Islamist forces like Tarikat Federation Khilafat I Majlis will stand behind AL.
Jamaat will completely back BNP and its cadres are ready for a final showdown against Hasina regime.
The moderate BNP leaders like Fakhrul, Dudu, Iqbal Tuku, etc.are not ready for any violent tumult in the country.
AL will not spare an inch in case of any political turmoil. Sk. Hasina is a hard nut to crack and a seasoned politician.
Military and other state forces will not go for another 1/11 without the support of Indian govt. This is a great advantage for Hasina. BNP knows it.It will only go for rabble-rousing but never opt for any direct confrontation.
AL is weak in popular support at present but Hasina will merge as a legend if BNP and other anti-AL forces fail to dislodge her from power this time.
Jatiya Party is finished force. ALwill encourage them to take a strong stand against it so that BNP will fail to capture the entire opposition canvas. GMQader is ready for it. But Rawshon Ershad is totally subservient to Hasina. Bidisha Ershad is not a factor at all. Here is also a problem for AL. Common people do not regard JP as an opposition party.due to their consistent bootlicking.
10thDecember was a dateline. AL had shown its teeth and nails to remain in power.
BNP should not go for any further confrontation. If this time 1/11 happens it will install a civil society led govt for atleast a decade Khaleda and Hasina were in early 60s during 2006. Now they are old and Khaleda is completely frail.
Moreover another political development is taking place in the external politics of Indian sub-continent. Bangladesh is emerging as the fulcrum of clash between China on the one side and India and USA on the other.
The continuous Chinese engagement in the economic development of Bangladesh and her joining in the Belt and Road Initiative of China is not well received by India and USA. Again China has already publically warned Bangladesh to not to join ‘QUAD Plus’ led by USA despite being the biggest development partner of Bangladesh in terms of financial loans and grants.
The American administration is not taking the growing Chinese influence in Bangladesh in a reluctant manner. Bangladesh has asked to join QUAD, IPEF ( INDO PACIFIC ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK) and IPS ( INDO PACIFIC STRATEGY).
Bangladesh, being a small country with a huge poor population, cannot ignore the pulls and pressures of the world powers.
The recent visit of US Assistant Secretary of State in charge of South and Southeast Asia Mr. Donald Lew has paid a two day visit (14th and 15th January) to Dhaka which bears deep diplomatic significance. He acknowledged that the issue of IPS has been discussed with his Bangladeshi counterpart and assured that it is basically a strategy for future not a club against anyone. Lew’s visit in the backdrop of Treasury sanctions of US against RAB and seven current and former officials of RAB and Police under Magnitsky Act of 2012 on 10th December which was the last day of virtual Democracy Summit in which Bangladesh was not invited by the host Biden administration. In 2013 Bangladesh has been denied the GSP (Generalized System of Preferences) by US authorities and not revoked till date.
Despite having a growing economic relationship between US and Bangladesh there are complicating issues between the two countries. The visit of Donald Lew and his position on democracy and human rights in Bangladesh will have a long-term effects in the unfolding of political events in time to come.
It can be concluded that Bangladesh will have to be more mature and resilient to subsequent times to overcome the impending challenges of politics on both internal and external fronts with delicate care and discerning caution.