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Bimal Pramanik Director, Centre for Research in Indo-Bangladesh Relations (CRIBR), Kolkata. A change in the demographic pattern of a country is an obvious result of migration, which is as old as human civilization.  But if the change is significantly high in a short span of time, it is bound to cause a social concern for the country experiencing this phenomenon. According to Pakistan (East) and Bangladesh Census from 1951 to 2011, Hindu population declined significantly in every Census period.  All the refugees who had been coming to West Bengal during Pakistani days were Hindus.  In the Bangladesh era, Hindus are coming as usual as in the days of Pakistan due to religious persecution and political pressure.  In the 1941 Census, under the British rule, Hindu population was 28% in East Bengal, i.e. in present Bangladesh.  Post Partition dismal picture of decadal Hindu population percentages is shown in the trend line:         Source :  Bangladesh Population Census 2011. As observed from the Bangladesh Population Census of 2011, the share of Hindu population has come down to 8.5% only.  During the last sixty years since 1951 (1951—2011), the comparatively lower growth rate of Hindus indicates a steady migration of Hindu population from Bangladesh to India, particularly to the state of West Bengal, Assam and Tripura. On the other hand, in West Bengal, growth rates of Hindus and Muslims are 230.81% and 400.56% respectively during 1951—2011.  Population share of Hindus and Muslims in 1951 was 78.45% and 19.85% respectively, but during the last sixty years, the share of Hindus in West Bengal has come down to 70.54%—a  decrease by 7.91% in spite of a massive Hindu migration as refugees  from East Bengal/East Pakistan/Bangladesh after Partition of India in 1947, whereas the share of Muslims has increased by 27.01%—an  increase of 7.16%1 because of high growth rate and massive Muslim infiltration from Bangladesh to West Bengal particularly during 1971 to 2011. Changes in religious demography of West Bengal during 1951-1971 (trend line) are shown below. During the 1951-2011 period, the contrast between a decline in Hindu population and an extraordinary upswing in Muslim population is indeed remarkable in every district of the state of West Bengal.  In a number of districts, the rate of growth of the Muslim population is double or more than double that of the Hindu population. In the state of Assam, there is a significant trend of religious-demographic changes from 1951 to 2011.  If we consider the NRC period, i.e. 1971 onwards, it is a clear trend of massive growth of Muslims in Assam observed after the liberation of Bangladesh.  Examples from four Censuses of Assam, i.e. 1971, 1991, 2001 and 2011, illustrate the trend line of percentage of religious population, as mentioned below: 2 Only within forty years, Hindu population declined more than 11%, and there was an extra-ordinary upswing of Muslim population by about 10%. It is a grave threat to the very existence of Assamese Hindus.  Apart from that, the following nine districts of Assam have now more than 50% to 80% of Muslim population, although Muslims did not form a majority in 1971; in some other districts, there is a significant growth of Muslim population observed since 1971.3 Sl. No. Name of district Muslim population (%) 1 Dhubri 79.67 2 Goalpara 57.52 3 Barpeta 70.74 4 Morigaon 52.56 5 Naogaon 55.36 6 Karimganj 56.36 7 Hailakandi 60.31 8 Darrrang 64.34 9 Bongaigaon 50.22  There was not a single Muslim majority district in 1971 in Assam, but after delimitation of districts in 1991, five districts became Muslim majority only within twenty years from 1971.  After another twenty years, i.e. in 2011, nine districts became Muslim majority out of twenty seven.  We can cite an important example: before delimitation in 1971, there was only 16% Muslim population in Darrang district. In 1991, Darrang and Sonitpur became two districts after delimitation, and the percentage of Muslim population became 32% and 13% respectively.  In 2011, Darrang witnessed a massive jump of Muslims from 32% to more than 64% within twenty years only. Considering the above demographic situation, on 8 November 1998, Lieutenant General S. K. Sinha, the Governor of Assam, submitted an extensive report to the President of India on the grave threat posed by the influx of people from Bangladesh to Assam.  He said:           “The dangerous consequences of large scale illegal migration from Bangladesh, both for the people of Assam and more for the Nation as a whole, need to be emphatically stressed.  No misconceived and mistaken notions of secularism should be allowed to come in the way of doing so”. “As a result of population movement from Bangladesh, the spectre looms large of the indigenous people of Assam being reduced to a minority in their home state.  Their cultural survival will be in jeopardy, their political control will be weakened and their employment opportunities will be undermined”. “The silent and invidious demographic invasion of Assam may result in the loss of the geo-strategically vital districts of lower Assam.  The influx of illegal migrants is turning these districts into a Muslim majority region.  It will then only be a matter of time when a demand for their merger with Bangladesh may be made.  The rapid growth of international Islamic fundamentalism may provide the driving force for this demand.  In this context, it is pertinent that Bangladesh has long discarded secularism and has chosen to become an Islamic state.  Loss of lower Assam will sever the entire land mass of the North-East, from the rest of India and the rich natural resources of that region will be  lost to the Nation”4.  Just after independence of Bangladesh, on 8 September 1972, Maulana Abdul Hamid Khan Bhasani, a senior-most leader of Bangladesh, was speaking in a public meeting at Paltan Maidan, Dhaka.  He said, “Bangla speaking areas of India and Bangladesh will form greater Bengal including Bangladesh, West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya and Tripura.  Greater Bengal movement has already gathered momentum, army of Indira Gandhi will not be able to suppress …

Demographic Changes in Eastern India, and the need for a National Register of Citizens Read More »

Bimal Pramanik and Kasturi Bhadra Ray The Partition of India in 1947 saw an onslaught of refugees from Pakistan (from eastern and western parts) into India. Displaced migrants started pouring into India in the wake of communal disturbances preceding and following Independence (Dey and Chakraborty1994).This has continued unchecked especially in the Eastern part of the Country,even after East Pakistan became an independent country,namely,Bangladesh in  1971. Though migrants from Bangladesh to India were primarily Hindus, Muslims also formed a part of the flow, mainly for economic reasons. The migrants from Bangladesh are primarily settled in West Bengal and neighbouring states, one of which is Orissa. A study was conducted among 400 women in Nadia and Murshidabad districts of West Bengal, and Kendrapara of Orissa, where there are large settlements of migrants from Bangladesh. The study tried to take a look at the work status of the female migrants. The study focussed on females especially, because over the years, the percentage of females among the migrants from Bangladesh to India has been on the rise (from 46.21% in 1971 to 52.79%   in 2001 in accordance with Census of India 1971-2001). Participation in economic activity of the female migrants in the survey areas has been examined and reasons behind different levels of participation have been analysed. In the study areas of West Bengal and Orissa, four blocks were chosen from the two district of West Bengal (Murshidabad and Nadia) in consultation with local people, officials and Panchayat members. In Murshidabad, the four blocks selected were Murshidabad –Jiaganj of Lalbagh subdivision, Raninagar II, Jalangi and Domkal blocks from Domkal subdivision .In Nadia, Chakdaha block from Kalyani subdivision and three blocks namely Karimpur-1, Karimpur-2 and Tehatta-1 from Tehatta subdivision were chosen. In Orissa’s Kendrapara district where the study was concentrated, one block, namely Mahakalapada block was chosen after consultation with the local people, officials and the Panchayat members regarding area-wise concentration of migrants. The women in the survey areas have been divided into groups of five year period. The age distribution is seen to vary amongst the different survey areas (Table 1). Table 1: Age distribution of the female migrants (Percentage) Age Group Lalbagh Domkal Kalyani Tehatta Kendrapara 0-14 0.00 0.00 0.00 – – 15-19 0.00 1.31 1.42 2.77 – 20-24 5.00 3.96 0.00 9.72 6.00 25-29 5.00 10.52 12.85 15.27 14.00 30-34 11.25 15.78 12.85 12.50 19.00 35-39 6.25 15.78 28.57 27.77 20.00 40-44 8.75 18.42 12.85 13.88 16.00 45-49 5.00 13.15 11.42 13.88 14.00 50-54 16.25 13.15 8.57 2.77 3.00 55-59 3.75 5.26 2.85 -1.38 3.00 60-64 20.00 1.31 5.71 — 2.00 65+ 18.75 1.31 2.85 – 3.00 Mean Age 49 years 40 years 39 years 35 years 37 years Source: Survey data The main concentration is in Lalbagh (30-54 years), but there is a substantial percentage (38.75%) in the 60 years plus age group. In Domkal and Kalyani   the women under the survey belong to the   25-54 years age category mainly, though in Tehatta, the women were from a lower age cluster (20-49 years). In Kendrapara, the respondents primarily belonged to 25-49 years. Quite a few women in Lalbagh belong to the 60 years and above   category, but this is for Lalbagh only. In the other areas, very low percentages of the women migrants belong to this age category. Also, in Lalbagh, Domkal, Kalyani, Tehatta and Kendrapara, none of the   women migrants   were from the 0-14 year’s age group. The average age of the women varies from 35 years in Tehatta,  37 years in Kendrapara, 39 years in Kalyani, 40 years in Domkal to 49 years in Lalbagh All the females chosen for the study in Lalbagh and Kalyani in West Bengal and Kendrapara, Orissa were Hindus, the areas being predominantly Hindu, but in Domkal and Tehatta of West Bengal the females were broadly divided between Hindus and Muslims. Table 2: Religious composition of the female migrants (Percentage) Religion Lalbagh Domkal Kalyani Tehatta Kendrapara Hindu 100.00 57.89 100.00 54.16 100.00 Muslim – 42.10 – 45.83 – Christian – – – – – Buddhist – – – – – Others – – – – – No Reply – – – – – Source: Survey Data 57.89% of the females were Hindus in Domkal, and 54.16% in Tehatta. Work Status An examination of the data on work participation of the women reveals a huge disparity among the female migrants in the survey areas of West Bengal and Orissa.Almost all of them are engaged in economic activities in Orissa, but in the study areas of West Bengal, only 25% in Lalbagh, 15.78% in Domkal, 7.14% in Kalyani and 12.50% in Tehatta are engaged in economic activity. Amongst the women workers in Lalbagh, 5.26% work as agricultural labourers. But the women are mainly engaged in the biri making (52.63%) and 42.10% work as maids or cooks in other households Table 3: Sector wise distribution of the working women migrants (Percentage)   Lalbagh Domkal Kalyani Tehatta Kendrapara Cultivator 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.01 Agricultural labourer 5.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 96.96 Household industries 52.63 66.66 75.00 0.00 1.01 Others 42.10 33.33 25.00 100.00 20.20  Source: Survey data                        (N.B: Women engaged in biri making have been shown under ‘household industries’ and those working as maids have been classified under ‘others’. N.B.2: In Kendrapara, the total is not 100% because some women are engaged in more than one occupation) The paltry 15.78% women, who are engaged in regular employment work in Domkal, also work in the biri industry or as maids (Table 3).  This is again observed in the case of Kalyani where the very low percentage who are engaged regular employment, work in either the biri industry or as domestics in other households.In Tehatta, only 12.5% are employed, primarily in livestock tending. So overall in the survey areas of West Bengal, where work participation rate is low, the women are mostly working as biri maker, as domestics or as livestock tenders. However, in Orissa, the distribution picture of the women migrants engaged in various sectors is very different …

Work Status of female migrants/infiltrators from Bangladesh in West Bengal and Orissa Read More »