Demographic Changes in Eastern India, and the need for a National Register of Citizens

A change in the demographic pattern of a country is an obvious result of migration, which is as old as human civilization.  But if the change is significantly high in a short span of time, it is bound to cause a social concern for the country experiencing this phenomenon.

According to Pakistan (East) and Bangladesh Census from 1951 to 2011, Hindu population declined significantly in every Census period.  All the refugees who had been coming to West Bengal during Pakistani days were Hindus.  In the Bangladesh era, Hindus are coming as usual as in the days of Pakistan due to religious persecution and political pressure.  In the 1941 Census, under the British rule, Hindu population was 28% in East Bengal, i.e. in present Bangladesh.  Post Partition dismal picture of decadal Hindu population percentages is shown in the trend line:

        Source :  Bangladesh Population Census 2011.

As observed from the Bangladesh Population Census of 2011, the share of Hindu population has come down to 8.5% only.  During the last sixty years since 1951 (1951—2011), the comparatively lower growth rate of Hindus indicates a steady migration of Hindu population from Bangladesh to India, particularly to the state of West Bengal, Assam and Tripura.

On the other hand, in West Bengal, growth rates of Hindus and Muslims are 230.81% and 400.56% respectively during 1951—2011.  Population share of Hindus and Muslims in 1951 was 78.45% and 19.85% respectively, but during the last sixty years, the share of Hindus in West Bengal has come down to 70.54%—a  decrease by 7.91% in spite of a massive Hindu migration as refugees  from East Bengal/East Pakistan/Bangladesh after Partition of India in 1947, whereas the share of Muslims has increased by 27.01%—an  increase of 7.16%¹ because of high growth rate and massive Muslim infiltration from Bangladesh to West Bengal particularly during 1971 to 2011. Changes in religious demography of West Bengal during 1951-1971 (trend line) are shown below.

During the 1951-2011 period, the contrast between a decline in Hindu population and an extraordinary upswing in Muslim population is indeed remarkable in every district of the state of West Bengal.  In a number of districts, the rate of growth of the Muslim population is double or more than double that of the Hindu population.

In the state of Assam, there is a significant trend of religious-demographic changes from 1951 to 2011.  If we consider the NRC period, i.e. 1971 onwards, it is a clear trend of massive growth of Muslims in Assam observed after the liberation of Bangladesh.  Examples from four Censuses of Assam, i.e. 1971, 1991, 2001 and 2011, illustrate the trend line of percentage of religious population, as mentioned below: ²

Only within forty years, Hindu population declined more than 11%, and there was an extra-ordinary upswing of Muslim population by about 10%. It is a grave threat to the very existence of Assamese Hindus. 

Apart from that, the following nine districts of Assam have now more than 50% to 80% of Muslim population, although Muslims did not form a majority in 1971; in some other districts, there is a significant growth of Muslim population observed since 1971.³

 There was not a single Muslim majority district in 1971 in Assam, but after delimitation of districts in 1991, five districts became Muslim majority only within twenty years from 1971.  After another twenty years, i.e. in 2011, nine districts became Muslim majority out of twenty seven.  We can cite an important example: before delimitation in 1971, there was only 16% Muslim population in Darrang district. In 1991, Darrang and Sonitpur became two districts after delimitation, and the percentage of Muslim population became 32% and 13% respectively.  In 2011, Darrang witnessed a massive jump of Muslims from 32% to more than 64% within twenty years only.

Considering the above demographic situation, on 8 November 1998, Lieutenant General S. K. Sinha, the Governor of Assam, submitted an extensive report to the President of India on the grave threat posed by the influx of people from Bangladesh to Assam.  He said:

          “The dangerous consequences of large scale illegal migration from Bangladesh, both for the people of Assam and more for the Nation as a whole, need to be emphatically stressed.  No misconceived and mistaken notions of secularism should be allowed to come in the way of doing so”.

“As a result of population movement from Bangladesh, the spectre looms large of the indigenous people of Assam being reduced to a minority in their home state.  Their cultural survival will be in jeopardy, their political control will be weakened and their employment opportunities will be undermined”.

“The silent and invidious demographic invasion of Assam may result in the loss of the geo-strategically vital districts of lower Assam.  The influx of illegal migrants is turning these districts into a Muslim majority region.  It will then only be a matter of time when a demand for their merger with Bangladesh may be made.  The rapid growth of international Islamic fundamentalism may provide the driving force for this demand.  In this context, it is pertinent that Bangladesh has long discarded secularism and has chosen to become an Islamic state.  Loss of lower Assam will sever the entire land mass of the North-East, from the rest of India and the rich natural resources of that region will be  lost to the Nation”⁴. 

Just after independence of Bangladesh, on 8 September 1972, Maulana Abdul Hamid Khan Bhasani, a senior-most leader of Bangladesh, was speaking in a public meeting at Paltan Maidan, Dhaka.  He said, “Bangla speaking areas of India and Bangladesh will form greater Bengal including Bangladesh, West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya and Tripura.  Greater Bengal movement has already gathered momentum, army of Indira Gandhi will not be able to suppress it.  Residents of West Bengal are now slaves of Delhi and Marwaris.” Bhasani also called upon the people of West Bengal “to break away the barriers of Delhi for greater Bengal movement.” The then Bangladesh Government and senior leaders of the ruling party, Bangladesh Awami League (AL), who fought and led Bangladesh liberation war in 1971 with the help of India, did not utter a single word against Maulana Bhasani’s divisive speech against India’s territorial integrity.  From the very beginning, Bangladeshi Muslim intellectuals and pro-Pakistan and pro-Chinese political leadership encouraged the Muslim population to settle in India’s border states with Bangladesh, particularly, in Assam and West Bengal. They adopted the agenda of a greater Islamic region as a grand political strategy.  Although it was an emotional issue for Sheikh Mujib, later it became a political and strategic issue with the support of Pakistan.

In the nineteen eighties, planned migration/infiltration from Bangladesh conformed to the lebensraum theory, which was encouraged by the Indian Muslims in border states under the protection and patronization of some political and social forces of India’s Eastern and North-Eastern region.  This continuous infiltration from across the border is slowly and steadily changing the demographic pattern in border states, especially in the states of Assam and West Bengal.

In the above context, the Supreme Court of India’s judgement on NRC in 2014 and Citizenship Amendment Bill-2016 have been designed to solve the complexity of the situation.  The Government of India has published two Gazette Notifications on 8 September 2015 and 23 December 2016 to accommodate those hapless Hindus, Buddhists, Sikhs, Jains, Parsis and Christians who have come to India from Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan before 31 December 2014. Government has also introduced ‘The Citizenship (Amendment) Bill-2016’ in the Parliament of India (Lok Sabha) on 15 July 2016.  The Bill mentioned in Clause 2:

          “Provided that persons belonging to minority communities, namely, Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains, Parsis and Christians from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan, who have been exempted by the Central Government by or under clause (c) of sub-section (2) of section 3 of the Passport (Entry into   India) Act, 1920 or from the application of the provisions of the Foreigner’s Act, 1946 or any order made there under, shall not be treated as illegal migrants for the purposes of this Act.”

Clause no.4 stated that in the principal Act, in the third schedule, in clause (d), the following provisions shall be inserted, namely:  “Provided that for the persons belonging to minority communities, namely, Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains, Parsis and Christians from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan, the aggregate period of residence or service of a Government of India as required under this clause shall be read as “not less than six years.” The Lok Sabha passed the above Bill, but it is now under consideration in the Parliamentary Select Committee.

Some Bangladeshi intellectuals and academicians are re-thinking about Partition not only in 1947, but also in 1971 (Second  Partition).  Though their thought on creation of a combined East Bengal and Assam province dividing Bengal is different from that of the Bengali Hindu intelligentsia in 1905.  They are also unhappy about the event of re-unification of Bengal in 1911 (by the pressure of Hindu intelligentsia including Rabindranath), like their predecessors.  It is mentionable that, non-cooperation of Muslim with freedom struggle in Bengal with Hindus during the British era was the ultimate result of Bengal Partition repeal Act in 1911. But in the last quarter of the twentieth century they feel encouraged by the prevalent religious population pattern of West Bengal, Assam, Tripura, and Bangladesh, where Muslims enjoy overwhelming majority (61%) in the whole region. A composite population table is given below:  

Table – Population of West Bengal, Assam, Tripura, and Bangladesh 2011

Source – Census of Assam, Tripura, and West Bengal, 2011, Government of India & Census of Bangladesh 2011.

They have started preaching that Partition of India was wrong in 1947, and Bengal region was the worst affected by the Partition. East Bengal was also exploited by Pakistan like a colony, so, Bangladesh was liberated. Now they need living space in India’s North-East region.

But they were shocked, when  the Supreme Court of India’s verdict on NRC (National Register of Citizens) in Assam came to light and legitimate demands for NRC from other neighbouring Indian states are raised by the political and other social forces—which were beyond their comprehension.

“These are all related with the Partition of Bengal in 1947.  What about `unpeopling’ through denial of four million Assamese Bengalis with the publication of NRC?  What about a large part of Bengalis in Tripura and 25 million Bengalis in West Bengal fearing about their future seeing the NRC caricature in Assam? What are the relationships between this and 1947 Bengal Partition?  Is there any assurance that similar situation will not crop up in Bangladesh and in other parts of India, in the future?  This is politics!  And to a large extent, related to the 1947 Bengal Partition.”⁵

When a massive decline of Hindu minority population was witnessed in Bangladesh due to communal persecution and religious discrimination, Bangladeshi intellectuals very poorly perceived that all communal pogroms ever taking place were consequences of the divide and rule policy of the British power, and  subsequently, the secular intellectuals (!) remained idle and  ineffective, mostly looking like dwarfs, when blood along the lanes of communal pogroms created rivers to consolidate the Pakistani rule in East Pakistan. Even in Bangladesh era, they say that the unilateral Muslim sectarian attacks on Hindu minorities, and demolition of their religious institutions and temples, looting of their properties, rape of their womenfolk all over Bangladesh in 1990, 1992, 2001—2004 were the fall out of the demolition of the Babri Masjid in India, and a result of the conspiracies hatched by a dictatorial and a pro-JIB government respectively.  This time also the same logic based on political considerations has been put forward by many, and they still believe the people of Bangladesh are not at all communal and never was.

The major political parties of Bangladesh and their servilely obedient intellectuals would hardly admit that the Islamisation, and communalisation of Bangladesh society have gone the full circle during the last fifty five years.  In present day Bangladesh, what the common Muslim population is doing now is grossly soaked in communalism and anti-Hindu sentiments, which precisely are the legacy of Pakistan.  It has now become a wistful thinking that the fair wind of communal harmony is blowing in Bangladesh.

Leaders of the Muslim society as a whole are trying to organise and consolidate Muslim masses on the basis of religion and madrassa / religious teachings.  The moderate views of the society are gradually being replaced by the radical Islamic concept.  As a result, the differences with the other religious and cultural sects have widened. Now Bangladesh has become the main epicentre of the North-Eastern region for propagating and promoting ultra-Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism in spite of self-advertised but questionable endeavour by the present Bangladesh Government to eliminate pro-radical Islamist terrorists.

Concluding Remarks

To get a comprehensive idea of Citizenship amendment bill 2016 and National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam, we can revisit events of the 1947 partition of India episode and reorganization of Indian states in independent India in 1956.  First, the very basis of partition of India was the two nation theory. Bengal partition was also on the basis of two nation theory and distribution of districts, sub-districts and even police station areas on the basis of Hindu-Muslim population share. There was a perception that if religious minorities from Pakistan and India migrated to their respective countries, they would be rehabilitated. In case of divided Bengal, religious minorities did not entirely migrate to their respective countries. The entire period of Pakistani rule (1947-1971) witnessed the migration of Hindus, and other non-Muslims from East Bengal / East Pakistan to India, particularly to West Bengal, Assam and Tripura, and even in the Bangladesh era, minority migration has been still continuing, and minority population has declined to around 9% (2011) from 29% (1947). On the other hand, Muslim population has been increasing unabatedly in eastern India, after partition, particularly in West Bengal, Assam, and Tripura. Actually, they did not migrate en-masse after partition (1947), and we learn from the 1951 census that even in the district of Murshidabad, Muslim population declined by only 1% ie. to 55% in 1951 from 56% in the 1941 census. In 2011, the percentage of Muslim population in Murshidabad was 66%. In each district of West Bengal and Assam, Muslim population significantly increased during the entire period (1951-2011). Why did it happen? I have discussed it in my paper, and mentioned the causes behind it. Now the question is, after the 1947 partition of India, states were reorganized mainly on the basis of language and ethnicity. But the Muslim community in this sub-continent always believed in, and practised the culture of two nations theory, which was the rationale of the 1947 partition. They parade themselves as having a separate identity, ignoring Indian mainstream culture and history. Now a-days, a large number of those are even ready to identify themselves as radical Islamists due to the influence of the international radical Islamic movement. The preference for the two nation theory has been growing rapidly now in the community, though it was partially hidden in the last few decades. As a result, original inhabitants of Bengal and Assam feel insecure about the future of their culture, religion and population share. Already, some enlightened Hindu people are worried about the similarity of the present socio-political situation with that at the time of the 1947 partition of Bengal. Studying the population pattern of the eastern region of India, one can raise the spectre of another partition, and it may not be baseless. If we consider the problem of Assam, firstly, the nationality of the Ahamia (Assamese) people must be protected. Identity, culture and a majority population share of the Ahamia people must never be compromised. Those who migrated to Assam after 1971, should be treated according to law. N R C and Citizenship Amendment Act – 2016, must be considered only in this context.

References:

1. Population Census of West Bengal, 2011, Government of India.
2. Religious Demography of India, Centre for Policy Studies, Chennai, AP Joshi, et. al. 2003, and Population by Religious Community—2011, Census of Assam, Government of India.
3. Census of Assam, Population by Religious Community, 2011, Government of India.
4. In the Supreme Court of India, Civil Original Jurisdiction, Writ Petition  (Civil)  562 of 2012, pp.16-17.
5. Abul Barkat, Ph.D., Keynote paper of the Plenary Session I, First International Conference on Partition Politics : Impacts on Society, Economy, Culture and Indo-Bangladesh Relations (1947—2018), Dhaka, 11 August, 2018, P.11. )

(Published in  Dialogue, July-September issue, 2018, New Delhi, pp.91-98.)