Drona Bandyopadhyay
Bangladesh is undeniably one of the most important neighbours of India. Our country shares longest boundary with Bangladesh and she has an inevitable geographical and logistical role in providing communicational transit of folk and freight to the North-East of India from mainland. The strategically located seaports and airports can be prudently utilised in future to make intra-national connectivity more smooth and seamless.
We are helping Bangladesh in all possible ways. The birth of Bangladesh is not only a saga of the historical culmination of their own Bengali nationalistic movement but also a valiant chronicle of our political leadership, military gallantry and magnanimity of common Indians. Not less than 11,000 armed personnel of Indian defence forces were martyred for the liberation of Bangladesh. In post-1971 period Indian Government has continued to extend economic and other sort of aid and assistance towards the overall welfare of the people of Bangladesh. Though anti-Indianism has a long history since Pakistani times and it is inherently related to acrimonious attitude towards Hindu people and culture.
In recent times this sort of public psychology has increased manifold.
The evident inability of bilateralism to arrive at a mutually agreeable imperative concurrence on sharing common rivers including Teesta has profusely generated anti-Indianism at the ground level.
The unfortunate border killings are also a grave festering issue in Bangladesh. But illegal immigration and smuggling of contraband are the existent reasons behind the border killings. The mainstream media and political personalities in Bangladesh have never publicly acknowledged the actualities that trigger border killings.
The general election will take place in Bangladesh at the end of 2023 or at the start of 2024. According to media reports the election schedule will be declared in September 2023. So there is little time for us to thrash the policy out regarding the general elections.
The crisis issues in the present political scenario of Bangladesh are touched upon through following points.
A. Unpopularity of Awami League: The present Awami League (AL) government has become unpopular due to its autocratic attitude and corruption though corruption is not any factor in the Bangladesh society. India supports AL for its historical legacy. It is enjoying power about 15 years and also increasing unpopularity.
B. Failure of Opposition: People always want a change in democracy and they are relying on BNP, the main opposition. But due to various reasons BNP has failed to remove AL from power through street movement. Jatiya Party is a divided house and after Ershad’s death it has become weak. Moreover, it is seen as an associate of AL.
C. Western Pressure: Bangladesh is facing tremendous pressure from US, EU and UN due to its dismal human rights record. The Treasury sanctions and recent Visa restrictions declared by US are bright testimonials of US pressure on this poor country. Though they want protection of civil rights and free and fair election in Bangladesh but the main reason behind their actions is the China factor.
D. Role of China: China is a very important factor in Bangladesh. AL has established a deep rapport with this country due to both economic and political reasons. In 2019 it was China who gave first recognition to AL Government just after the election. China has huge investments and helping Bangladesh in various ways to become militarily strong.
E. Role of Russia: Bangladesh has also a good relation with Russia. In Ukraine war the Bangladesh has taken a pro-Russia stance in a very diplomatic way.
F. Rohingya Issue: There are more than a million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh. Their chances of returning back to Myanmar is very bleak. This primitive minded poor populace is a demographic threat to Bangladesh and also to India. They are illegally entering India and creating problems in various parts of the country.
G. Kuki Issue: Manipur is facing civil war between Meiteis and Kukis. Kukis are bringing arms and ammunitions from Myanmar where they are fighting against the junta. Recently, Kukis of Bangladesh have started a low-scale insurgency. Both the events are threat to the integrity and sovereignty of India and Bangladesh.
H. BURMA Act of US: US has enacted BURMA Act in April, 2022 to help the democratic movements in Myanmar. As Myanmarese junta is an ally of China for many decades US wants to help the democratic forces and ethnic groups which are fighting against Yangon’s autocratic rule. It is a grand design of US to dominate the entire region in the name of democracy and human rights. Though the China is the main target the emergent India is also a target in long term.
I. Decline of secular space in Bangladesh: Over the years it has been observed that secularists are steadily dwindling in numbers and their social spaces is becoming small and narrow. This secularist forces are the main support banks of India. Hence, India has a looming trouble due to their decline.
J. Economic Crisis: Bangladesh is facing a severe economic crisis. Inflation, plummeting of foreign exchange reserves, power cuts, etc. is crippling the economic growth. If the conditions get worse India may come to help like in Sri Lanka.
India is an emerging world power. With the rise of India at the global stage the stakes are also becoming high. The policy makers should not ignore some unfortunate realities present in Bangladesh. To save Bangladesh and safeguard India’s interests ta balanced Bangladesh policy is the need of the hour.